What real estate to invest in in 2026 – a practical guide

Three years ago, everyone was buying everything — apartments were selling like hotcakes, warehouses were popping up like mushrooms after rain, and even plots of land by the forest were finding buyers. Then came interest rate hikes, loans became more expensive, and the market slowed down. And now, here we are in 2026, at a moment many experts call a “turning point.” But what does that actually mean?

Investing in real estate simply means putting your money into tangible assets — you buy something physical that can generate profit either from rent or from an increase in value. In Poland, it’s still considered “concrete gold,” a symbol of a safe capital investment. However, 2026 brings a new rule: not every square meter is a good deal. Growth is there, but it’s selective — quality, location, and risk profile matter more than ever.

What real estate should you invest in for 2026? – our recommendations!

photo: brigadegroup.com

An investor holding cash in 2026 is asking themselves several key questions:

• Which segments – apartments, warehouses, or plots – have the highest ROI?
• How great is the risk compared to previous years?
• Is it worth taking out a loan at current interest rates?
• Where to look for bargains, and what to avoid like the plague?

The following sections of this article will show exactly how the market is changing, which types of real estate are favored by investors, and how to match your strategy to your own risk profile. Because 2026 is the year when “buying anything” will no longer be enough — you need to know what and why.

How We Got to 2026 – Lessons from the History of the Real Estate Market

Without understanding the history, it’s hard to judge whether 2026 is a good time to invest — or to hold off. The Polish real estate market has taken a truly wild path, from the communist-era housing allocation system to the modern-day covid buying frenzy.

photo: mediaboom.com

The most important stages of the Polish real estate market 1976-2025

Here’s what it looked like in a nutshell:

• 1976-1989: systemic transformation, apartments allocated by the system, private ownership limited
• 1990-2008: boom after market liberalization ( price increases up to ×10 after 1990), EU accession (2004) – influx of capital, first speculative bubbles
• 2008-2015: the global crisis also hit Poland, prices fell by 20-30%, but the ECB lowered interest rates, so loans became cheaper and the market stabilized
• 2016-2019: strong growth, especially in large cities ( +50% in the so-called BIG5), developers couldn’t keep up with supply
• 2020-2022: paradoxically, the pandemic boosted demand, people retreated to their own homes, prices increased by another +30-50%
• 2023-2025: The National Bank of Poland raised interest rates, loans became more expensive, demand weakened, and the market entered a phase of stabilization (with slight corrections in some areas)

Globally? Real estate grows in the long term – in Poland +500% after adjusting for inflation over the past 50 years. American REITs have averaged ~11% annually since the 1960s. But – and this is important – every 7–10 years there are corrections. Sometimes significant ones.

What do previous bubbles and corrections teach us?

A few lessons for the future:

• High increases often precede a correction (see: 2007, 2021)
• Cheap never means “bad” – crises are an opportunity for the patient
• Emotions (fear, euphoria) are poor advisors – it’s better to focus on cycles rather than newspaper headlines
• In the long term, real estate appreciates, but in the short term, it can hurt

In 2026, we are probably in a stabilization phase after the frenzy – is this an opportunity or a trap? We need to look at the current data to answer that.

photo: vidyard.com

Polish market in 2026 – key data and new regulations

After several years of significant ups and downs, the Polish real estate market is entering 2026 in a completely different state—more stable, but also more demanding for investors.

Apartment sales and prices at the turn of 2025/2026

Data from the end of 2025 show a clear revival. Apartment sales increased by about 10% year-on-year, and prices in the largest cities have stabilized — Warsaw is still at 15-18 thousand PLN/m², with Kraków and Wrocław only slightly less. Importantly, this is not a speculative boom, but real demand. People are simply returning to the market because they see that taking out a mortgage makes sense again.

Interest rates, loans, and access to financing

The NBP has lowered the reference rate from around 5.75% to 4.5%, which has resulted in the 3M WIBOR dropping to about 4%. For someone taking out a mortgage for 500,000 PLN, the monthly installment has fallen to roughly 3,000 PLN — manageable. Additionally, banks have returned to offering loans with an LtV of up to 90%, so the required down payment doesn’t have to be huge. Altogether, this means that access to financing is the best it has been in several years.

New regulations: PIT 2020 and the planning revolution

From January 2026, two major changes will come into effect. First: apartments purchased in 2020 can now be sold without PIT — experts estimate that as many as 50,000–100,000 units may enter the market, increasing supply. Second: the new planning law hits agricultural plots without a local zoning plan — thousands of such lands have become practically worthless.

Demand for rentals remains quite strong — profitability is around 4–4.5%, demand for apartments is up by 15% (thanks in part to migrants from Ukraine), despite negative demographics. The conditions are favorable, but selectivity is required.

Apartments for rent and for sale – where to find opportunities in 2026

Apartments are still the number one real estate investment in Poland —but in 2026, their profitability will vary greatly. It all depends on what and where you buy.

photo: rsnpropertygroup.com

Small apartments in big cities – the favorites of 2026

Experts agree on this: the most sensible choice are small apartments of 40-60 m² in the BIG5 (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Trójmiasto, Poznań). Why these in particular? Because remote work means people often change their place of residence—they need flexibility and don’t want to commit to a large apartment for years. Singles, young couples, students, and foreign workers—they are the ones driving rental demand.

Forecasts for the BIG5:

What does this mean for you? You buy today, in a year your apartment will be worth more, and all the while you collect monthly rent. A solid long-term strategy.

Province and smaller cities – higher ROI or higher risk?

Outside the BIG5, the situation is different. Prices are generally stable, sometimes dropping by 2-5%. On the other hand, rental yields can reach as high as 4.5-6%, since purchase prices are much lower. Sounds good? Yes, but there’s a catch.

The risk of vacancies is increasing. Smaller cities often lose young residents—they move to the BIG5 or go abroad. At the same time, the influx of migrants (mainly from Ukraine) can partially offset this, especially in areas with manufacturing plants.

Investment example: 50 m² in Krakow step by step

A specific scenario to see the numbers:

• Purchase price: ~900,000 PLN (50 m², good neighborhood)
• Rental price: 4,000 PLN/month
• Rental ROI: ~5% per year (4,000 × 12 / 900,000)
• Potential appreciation: approx. +4% in 2026 (that is, +36,000 PLN)

You have both rental income and value appreciation. Over a year, that’s nearly 84,000 PLN (minus costs—administration, tax, possible renovations—let’s say about 30% of the rent). Net profit? Around 6-7% per year. Not spectacular, but stable.

But watch out for pitfalls: the post-COVID construction boom may have created a local oversupply. And demographics—population is declining (unless immigration changes that). So choose locations close to railways, universities, IT centers—demand will be more stable there.

Warehouses, offices, and REITs – commercial real estate for investors

Apartments are not the only option if you’re considering real estate as an investment. Warehouses, offices, or shares in REITs can offer completely different rates of return—sometimes higher, sometimes more stable. However, not everyone has the desire (or the capital) to buy an entire logistics building. Let’s take a look at what makes sense in 2026 and for whom.

Warehouses and logistics – return rate leaders in 2026

This is where the most is happening right now. Forecasts predict a price increase of 7-10% within a year, sales are expected to jump by +20%, and rental profitability hovers around 6-8%. This is the result of the e-commerce boom—couriers need bases close to customers. Plus friendshoring: warehouses near Ukraine or the eastern border are gaining importance because companies want their supply chains closer. An example? Panattoni is building gigantic logistics parks near Wrocław— ROI around 8%. But beware: entry thresholds are high, a single facility often costs several dozen million zlotys.

Office market after the pandemic – stabilization or change of function?

Offices? Less exciting numbers. Prices are rather stable, sales may increase by +5%, rental profitability is approx. 5%. Hybrid work has changed the game – companies are renting less space, but are paying more attention to the quality of the environment. Modern, eco-friendly locations have the advantage. A BREEAM or LEED certificate can increase a property’s value by 10-15% and attract institutional tenants who pay on time. The risk? Vacancies, if hybrid employment becomes more widespread.

REITs and green buildings as a way to diversify

REITs are real estate funds that pay dividends – globally, they offer 6-8% annually. In Poland, legislative work is still underway, but once the law is passed, it will be possible to buy a “piece” of commercial real estate without freezing millions. ESG is another key term: buildings with certifications attract capital, are easier to rent out, and have a value premium.

The key question is: how much capital do you have and how much do you want to invest in a single project? Commercial properties require more cash, but offer diversification — institutional tenants, different cycles than residential real estate.

Plots and land in the new planning order – what still makes sense?

For years, investing in land plots was considered a safe way to allocate capital. You buy a piece of land, wait, and the value goes up. Right? Well, since January 2026, the rules of the game have changed — and quite radically.

photo: zaminwale.com

New planning law – what changes from 2026?

As of January 1, 2026, the so-called “planning revolution” has come into effect. It sounds intimidating, but in short, it means that without a local spatial development plan (MPZP), developing a plot of land becomes much more difficult and often practically impossible. The days are over when you could submit an application for building conditions and eventually get the green light for construction. Now, the local plan is what matters. And it will determine how much your plot is actually worth.

Plots with a Local Development Plan vs. agricultural land – who gains, who loses?

Plots covered by the Local Spatial Development Plan are now like gold. Experts predict their prices will rise by +5-10% as early as 2026, mainly because the legal status is clear — you know exactly what you can build there and under what conditions. On the other hand, agricultural plots without a plan? That’s a high-risk investment. Thousands of such parcels may lose their investment value, as developers simply won’t have the grounds to build on them.

It’s also worth looking at regional differences. The Mazowieckie Voivodeship, especially the areas around the planned CPK, are places where plots with a Local Spatial Development Plan could increase in price by as much as +10%. But in other regions? Demand can be much weaker.

Checklist for buying an investment plot in 2026

Before you decide to buy, check:

1. Does the plot have a Local Development Plan? – that’s fundamental
2. Access to the road – without it, construction is out of the question
3. Utilities nearby – electricity, water, sewage
4. Logistics environment – is it really possible to build something here?
5. Risk of changes in plans – is the municipality not planning to revise the Local Spatial Development Plan?

Plots can be a great investment, but only if they have a solid legal foundation. Otherwise, you’re buying risk, not an asset.

Effective real estate investment strategies in 2026

In 2026, simply buying an apartment to rent out is not enough to call it a real strategy. The market has become more complex — we have an oversupply of apartments in some cities, but at the same time, rising wages and a potential decrease in interest rates. To build a portfolio wisely, it’s worth considering diversification and understanding when financial leverage makes sense and when it’s better to limit credit.

photo: lawtimesnews.com

Diversification of a real estate portfolio in practice

Instead of putting everything into one type, it’s worth combining several segments. An example? A small apartment in Warsaw for long-term rental (4-7% net annually + 3-5% appreciation), participation in a logistics fund (6-8% dividend), and a building plot with a local zoning plan for future investment (potentially 20-30% growth in 3-5 years, but without current income). Such a mix spreads the risk—if the residential market slows down, commercial real estate may go up; if interest rates fall, land values usually increase. And each element generates a different type of return—cash now (rental) vs. profit later (land).

Real estate vs bonds – where does the advantage lie in 2026?

Bonds currently offer about 5.5-6% with minimal risk. Rental apartments provide a similar 4-7% net return plus appreciation, but they require time and management. REITs pay dividends of 6-8%, are liquid, but volatile. So when does real estate make sense? When you expect property values to rise (which bonds can’t offer) and you’re not deterred by vacancies or renovations. If you prefer peace of mind and liquidity, bonds might be a better choice.

Sample strategies: conservative, balanced, aggressive

Conservative: most capital in bonds and REITs, maybe one small apartment to start. Minimal debt. Goal: stable income of ~5-6% without stress.

Balanced: half of the funds in apartments (one or two), the rest in real estate funds and bonds. Moderate loan (LTV ~50%). Return of 6-7% with balanced risk.

Aggressive: several apartments with high leverage (LTV 70-80%), plots for future development. Goal: above 8-10% with higher risk of vacancy and price drops.

The choice depends on your risk tolerance and how much time you want to devote to management. Develop a plan—without one, it’s easy to make impulsive purchases.

Building a real estate portfolio by 2030 – how to prepare for changes

Investing in real estate is a long game — you don’t buy today to sell in a year. So if you’re planning to enter in 2026, it’s worth looking further ahead: what might happen by 2030, and how to prepare your portfolio for different scenarios.

What scenarios await the real estate market by 2030?

Analysts expect that sometime between 2026 and 2030 there may be a price correction of 10-20%, especially in the residential segment. The peak of housing oversupply is forecast for 2028-2030—at that time, developers will deliver the effects of the boom from 2023- 2025. After this “interlude,” another increase is possible, driven by continued urbanization and a decline in the number of available units. Sounds like a rollercoaster? Exactly—that’s why flexibility is key.

Three long-term trends worth paying attention to:

• Downsizing – in large cities, smaller, functional apartments will be preferred; renting out a large M4 may be more difficult.
• Friendshoring – warehouses and halls near the border with Ukraine, close to the West – logistics ever closer to target markets.
• ESG and green certificates – energy-efficient buildings will be more expensive, but easier to rent and resell.

Practical steps to prepare your wallet today

What to do in 2026, keeping 2030 in mind?

1. Prefer flexible, easy-to-rent properties – small or medium-sized apartments in good locations.
2. Be cautious with large plots without a local zoning plan and spacious apartments on the outskirts.
3. Gradually build exposure to logistics and certified properties (BREEAM, LEED).
4. Monitor NBP decisions, regulatory changes and market reports (JLL, Otodom, Colliers).
5. Update your strategy every 12–24 months – consulting with an advisor can help you avoid mistakes.

Real estate is no longer just simple “concrete gold,” but with a conscious, flexible approach, it can remain a solid pillar of wealth. At least that’s how I see it.

NORBI C

real estate editorial team

Luxury Blog